CarbonPass captures no carbon itself. Its impact comes from reconnecting the CBAM bill to what a plant actually emits. On default values, a mill that cuts its emissions pays the same as one that doesn't. On verified data, every tonne cut is money saved at the border.
What the verified batches on the chain have already corrected. The installation is a fictional demo entity.
Connecting to the chain…
Move the sliders. Bills, savings and avoided emissions per year, 2026–2034, from the same cost model as the passport page.
EU default for hot-rolled flat steel: 2.43 tCO₂e/t
Conservative: the cut grows with the share of the carbon price actually charged.
Up to 450,000 if the full cut happens from 2026
A bill on default values is fixed by the EU's country average, so it ignores what the mill actually emits. Once the bill uses verified data, every tonne of CO₂ cut is money saved at the border, and the reward grows each year as the CBAM factor rises from 2.5% to 100%. Shown for 1.00 Mt/yr of exports at €80/tCO₂e.
Defaults (with mark-up) against verified data, same tonnes and price.
If the restored incentive triggers a cut of 0.050 tCO₂e/t.
Why this matters now for Turkish and Indian producers. Each card links to its source.
About 70% of Türkiye's steel comes from electric arc furnaces. The Aegean Ferrous and Non-Ferrous Metals Exporters' Association says the CBAM default values don't reflect that lower-carbon production, and that it is unclear which bodies accredit verifiers.
CarbonPass gives each plant its own verified value and keeps an on-chain registry of accredited verifiers.
The conference is in Antalya, Türkiye, with Australia as President of Negotiations. The winners of this hackathon are announced there.
A working evidence-to-border pipeline for a Turkish mill is a concrete, local example of carbon-market transparency.
Climate Law No. 7552 (July 2025) set up a national emissions trading system. Under the 2026 pilot rules, installations only monitor and report in 2026. EXIST runs the market and the registry.
The same verified monitoring data can feed the pilot. Once a domestic carbon price is paid, CBAM lets importers deduct it (Reg. 2023/956, Art. 9), and that deduction also needs trusted data.
Compliance credits under India's Carbon Credit Trading Scheme are expected to be issued and traded around October 2026. Research already finds CBAM reshaping EU–India steel trade. India's EU default for hot-rolled steel is 4.28 tCO₂e/t, so clean Indian mills lose the most on defaults.
One pipeline produces both the CCTS intensity data and the CBAM passport.
What the numbers mean, which inputs are assumptions, and where the impact could fall short.
saving(y) = T × [DV × (1 + m(y)) − SEE] × F(y) × P
worth(y) = 0.1 × T × F(y) × P on verified data
= 0 on default values
cut(y) = A × F(y) (phased) or A (immediate)
avoided(y) = cut(y) × T
overstated = T × (DV − SEE) accounting onlyT tonnes exported to the EU · DV EU default value · m mark-up · SEE verified intensity (direct + precursors) · F CBAM factor · P EU ETS price · A abatement by 2034. Same functions as the passport's cost model (lib/cbam.ts); every factor comes from data/factors.json.
Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2621, Annex I: Türkiye 2.43, India 4.28 tCO2e/t (as reproduced by greensutra.in). Check the Official Journal text of Implementing Reg. (EU) 2026/1740, which corrects Annex I with effect from 1 Jan 2026.
Mark-up on default values: 10% (2026), 20% (2027), 30% from 2028, per Reg. 2025/2621 guidance (greensutra.in, Aither)
Phase-out of free allocation for CBAM sectors (EU ETS Directive Art. 10a(1a)); CBAM obligation = 1 minus the free-allocation share
80 €/tCO₂e reference. The bill and saving scale linearly with it.
Starts at the fictional demo mill's value, calculated from its sample evidence with the factors in data/factors.json.
Scenario size. Not a market estimate.
How far the restored price signal moves plants is not known. Treat Δ as a what-if, not a forecast.
A producer can send its cleanest output to the EU and sell the rest elsewhere. Installation-level batches make the mass balance visible, but they don't prevent it: that takes policy. Avoided emissions count only when the plant really cuts, not when it reallocates clean tonnes.
The chain proves who signed what, and when. It cannot prove a meter reading is true. Impact depends on honest, competent accredited verifiers. Anomaly checks and the verifier registry make auditing them cheaper; they don't replace it.
The € saving is a smaller border bill, a transfer of money. The climate benefit appears only if that price signal leads plants to abate (Δ). “Overstatement corrected” fixes the accounting; it removes no CO₂ from the air.
We count avoided emissions on EU exports only, but a process change usually lowers emissions on the whole output, so that understates. Some plants would have cut anyway, so attributing every cut to the price signal overstates. Read the result as an order of magnitude.
For iron and steel only direct emissions (including precursors) are charged. Cleaner electricity lowers the plant's real footprint but not its CBAM bill. We still report indirect emissions for importers' Scope 3.
Annex I default values were corrected by Reg. 2026/1740, and the ETS price is volatile. The bills scale linearly with both, and the phase-in schedule is the current law, not a certainty.
Prototype on a public testnet. The installation, verifier and importers are fictional demo entities. Scenario outputs are what-ifs, not forecasts. Full write-up: docs/IMPACT.md in the repository.